Econoday Report: Jobless Claims July 29, 2010

2010 Economic Calendar

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Jobless Claims

Released on 7/29/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk7/24, 2010

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	464 K	460 K	455 K to 500 K	457 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	456 K			452.5 K

Highlights
Initial jobless claims for the July 24 week were down by 11,000 to 457,000, slightly lower than expected by analysts. However, the number of initial claims was revised up to 468,000 from 464,000 in the prior week. The four week average dropped by 4,500 to 452,500 in the July 24 week and the lowest since the May 8 week when the average was 450,500.

Continuing claims in the July 17 week were up by 81,000 to 4.565 million. The four week moving average here was down by 18,000 to 4,548,250, the lowest level since the December 27, 2008 week. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rebounded to 3.6 percent in the July 17 week after edging down to 3.5 percent in the previous week.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the July 17 week jumped 37,000 to 464,000. This followed a 31,000 drop the week before. The Labor Department indicated that the volatility was related to seasonal adjustment difficulties around the July 4 holiday. Continuing claims fell 223,000 in data for the July 10 week.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.

Data Source: Haver Analytics