2009 Economic Calendar
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U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar

ISM Mfg Index
Released On 1/2/2009 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2008
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level36.2 35.5 32.0  to 40.0 32.4 

Highlights
The manufacturing sector is contracting at a severe and accelerating rate, indicated by the 32.4 reading for the ISM's manufacturing index -- one of the very lowest readings in 60 years of data. The December report is unfortunately filled with record lows or near record lows. One of the most worrisome is an 18.0 reading for prices paid, a low last exceeded back in 1949. Price contraction reflects a combination of collapsing fuel costs and a collapse in demand as businesses destock. The inventories index fell for a second straight month, down 3 tenths to 38.8.

Employment is especially depressing, down more than 4 points to 29.9. New orders and backlog orders are severely depressed in the low 20s, readings that point to deepening trouble ahead. Financial markets showed surprisingly limited initial reaction to the results.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index contracted further in November as the headline index fell nearly 3 points to 36.2. The reading is the lowest since 1980 recession. Key components in the survey showed greater weakness than the headline index including a 31.5 level for the production index that matched the record low in May 1980. The new orders index at 27.9 is at its lowest since the early 1980s. Perhaps the most stunning reading of all, prices paid was 25.5 - down 11.5 points in the month and the lowest reading since early data in 1949.

ISM manufacturing index Consensus Forecast for December 08: 35.5
Range: 32.0 to 40.0

Definition
The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is transformed into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/22/23/24/15/16/17/18/39/110/111/212/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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